Methodology For Assessing Structural Transformations In The Economic Structure Based On Consistent Development And Inter-Sectoral Balance
Keywords:
economic structural transformations, complex assessment indicator, determination of economic efficiency, optimized economic structure, post-industrial economy, local economic sectors, principle of optimal proportion (golden ratio).Abstract
This article is devoted to the issue of assessing structural changes in the national economy of Uzbekistan, in which a method for determining structural shifts in the sectoral structure of GDP is proposed based on the use of an integrated index. Within the framework of this approach, a comprehensive assessment of the process of transition of the economy to the post-industrial stage is provided by determining weight coefficients, building an index model based on the principle of the "golden ratio".
The theoretical foundations of the approach are aimed at modernization of the economy based on technological criteria, systematization of the national economy by sectors, and in-depth analysis of the economic structure. The formation of the components of the integrated index is based on the sectoral structure of GDP in the industrial, agricultural, and service sectors. The proposed index represents the consistent (ideal) composition of GDP typical for a post-industrial economy, while deviations in the real composition allow us to identify structural shifts observed in Uzbekistan and 25 countries of the Asian region.
The study substantiates appropriate weighting coefficients for economic sectors in accordance with the level of technological complexity of the production process of goods (works and services). The article also presents the results of calculating the integral index, which reflects the sectoral composition of GDP and structural changes in its main segments.
Significant structural deviations have been identified in almost all sectors of the Uzbek economy, which reflects the low rates of economic development, the imbalance between supply and demand in the labor market, the low level of innovative activity, and the inertia of transformation processes in the transition to the post-industrial stage.
The application of the proposed methodology makes it possible to identify priority sectors of the national economy, determine strategic directions for their development, and develop forecast scenarios based on modeling economic and social processes.
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